Here's the real state of the Orange County market heading into the end of 2026, pulled directly from my MLS data for September. Single family homes and condos continue to tell two different stories across every market I track, and Orange County is no exception.
Countywide: Single Family vs. Condo
Orange County single family homes are still a seller's market, at 2.64 months of inventory, up 4.35% from August. The median sold price is $1,475,000, up 3.1% month over month, homes are selling at 99.2% of list price, and the median days on market is 19, up nearly 12% from August.
Condos are a different story: 3.61 months of inventory, up 6.2% from last month and over 12% from a year ago, a median sold price of $794,500, and 29 days on market, about 10 days slower than single family homes.
Why the Gap: Condition and Financing
Condition. Move-in ready homes and condos are selling fast. Anything needing work is sitting significantly longer, because buyers stretched by today's rates don't have cash left over to renovate.
Financing. Condo buildings considered unwarrantable, meaning they can't get a conventional loan, are sitting the longest of anything on the market, since that shrinks the buyer pool down to cash only.
The Rate Environment
The Fed hiked rates on September 16th, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed from 6.76% before the hike to 7.28% as of October 1st, compared to 6.34% a year ago. That's a major reason inventory is building and days on market are stretching, especially in the condo space.
The New Fannie Mae Condo Rule
As of September 1st, every condo purchase requires a full Fannie Mae project review, no more limited review option. Expect longer escrow timelines and more buildings getting flagged as unwarrantable. More changes are coming in January, so if you're buying or selling a condo, let's talk now.
(For the full breakdown, see my earlier post on the Fannie Mae condo lending changes.)
City Spotlights
Irvine: Single family inventory is at 4.21 months, down 4.3% from August and down almost 16% year over year, so supply is actually tightening here even as the county loosens. Median sold price is $2,036,500, up 6.8%, but days on market jumped to 41, up nearly 58% from August. Condos are at 4.35 months of inventory, median sold price $1,180,000, down 2.5% from last month, with days on market more than doubling to 38. Irvine condos are where buyers have real negotiating room right now.
Newport Beach: Our luxury market, and it moves in bigger swings. Single family inventory is at 4.13 months, median sold price $4,349,500, up over 12%, though at this price point a few sales can swing that number significantly. Days on market is 44, up 57% from August. Condos are at 4.2 months of inventory with 40 days on market. This is a market where pricing strategy and patience matter more than anywhere else in the county.
Santa Ana: One of the tightest markets we track. Single family inventory is at just 2.62 months, homes are selling at 100.7% of list price, meaning buyers are still paying over asking, and the median days on market is 18. Median sold price is $1,015,000. Condos are more balanced, at 3.7 months of inventory, median sold price $455,000, one of the most affordable entry points in the county, though condo inventory is up over 40% year over year.
Garden Grove: The tightest single family market on our list, at 1.89 months of inventory, homes selling at 102.3% of list price, median days on market 18, median sold price $1,142,500. Condos are at 3.08 months of inventory, median sold price $700,000, with condo inventory up nearly 59% year over year, right in line with what we're seeing in Santa Ana.
My Outlook Through Year End
Orange County is still a seller's market for single family homes, but the margin is narrowing, and condos have already tipped toward buyers. Unless buyer confidence adjusts to this higher-rate environment, I expect sales to keep slowing through the end of the year, with turnkey, well-priced single family homes in tighter markets like Santa Ana and Garden Grove continuing to move fast, often over asking, while condos everywhere, from Irvine to Newport Beach to Santa Ana to Garden Grove, give buyers more room.
If you're thinking about buying or selling anywhere in Orange County before year end, let's talk about exactly where your property fits into all of this.
Costanza Genoese Zerbi is ranked in the top 1.5% of agents nationwide by RealTrends, with rankings dating back to 2017. 600+ closed transactions, $525M+ in career sales, and #1 in Long Beach by sales volume in the 2024 RealTrends rankings.
Costanza Genoese Zerbi & Associates | eXp Realty of Greater Los Angeles | DRE #01941438
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